By Rohana Jith

Sinhala and Tamil New Year festivities came to end after ten days of merry making holidays by Sri Lankans who waited without any fanfare due to Covid 19 pandemic and Gotabaya Rajapaksa made economic crisis for four long years facing financial hardships.

As the dust is now settled an unusual calm has been prevailed on an otherwise chaotic landscape. The uneasiness of people is stressed; the weak are in fear of the uncertainty and the optimists are waiting for a brighter day.

During the New Year holidays, the political landscape has been relatively quiet for the past two weeks as many ministers chose to spend time with their families, some travelling abroad.

Approximately 20 government ministers were overseas during this period, either vacationing with their families or visiting their children who were studying abroad.

Additionally, the holiday bungalows in Nuwara Eliya, reserved well in advance by MPs, were fully occupied as they spent time with their families. Consequently, there were minimal significant political discussions during this time.

The President himself opted to spend the New Year in Nuwara Eliya, enjoying a leisurely break. He was observed strolling through the picturesque tea plantations, partaking in New Year festivities, and engaging in conversations with locals alongside his ministers.

The political atmosphere is changing by the hour. Rumors tend to be more accurate than what is being spilled out by the mainstream media. Sensationalism is once again dominating the headlines.

A land that was daydreaming that better days are yet ahead is waking up to a potential nightmare that awakened the people to be cautious of impending presidential election for the purpose of not falling into the abyss five year ago again at the upcoming presidential elections. .

Having hit a roadblock with international bondholders on sovereign debt restructuring, uncertainty looms over the economy of crisis-hit Sri Lanka and an upcoming review by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), experts warn.

The delay in reaching an agreement could also affect Sri Lanka’s upcoming IMF review, which is scheduled for June they said adding that as debt restructuring is a key condition for the IMF, it would have an impact on the time taken for board approval.

The program specifically supports Sri Lanka’s efforts to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, safeguard financial stability, and enhance growth-oriented structural reforms.

Moreover, the nation’s impending presidential election piles pressure on the government to accelerate the negotiation process, raising concerns about the sustainability of any deal struck hastily under such circumstances.

In a rushed environment, there is a chance an unfavorable deal may be struck, where the debt repayments agreed may be unsustainable for Sri Lanka to pay in the coming years which could lead to a second default

China Exim bank has given a two year moratorium for Sri Lanka to cover US $4.2 billion of its outstanding debt. Paving the way for international bond holders to arrive at a preliminary consensus on debt restructuring and undock IMF Extended Fund Facility of US $2.9 billion last year.

The deadline of the Chinese debt moratorium ended in April 12 and the government has so far failed to get an extension for the repayment of the debt despite recent attempt made by Prime Minister Dinesh Gunwardena during his visit to China.

In the wake of Chinese dent servicing issue, Sun Haiyan a deputy minister of the Chinese Communist government and a top diplomat representing the Chinese Central Committee will be visiting Sri Lanka to hold talks with Sri Lanka high-ranking officials on China Exim Bank debt servicing and extending the moratorium dead line by further 6 months.

In this way, in a background where there is no final agreement regarding the Chinese debt, the Paris club and the United States are also somewhat hesitant regarding debt restructuring.

According informed sources that these negotiations will probably drag on until October, after which a final decision will be taken. Since the presidential election has been announced by that time, it is possible to see a way that the president’s main trump card will become inactive.

Be that as it may the chances that President Ranil Wickremesinghe and United National Party (UNP) would come into form a coalition with Sajith Premadasa and the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) were slim to none a couple of years ago.

But the pressure that Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his National People’s Power (NPP) impacting on the status quo led by a potential UNP/SJB combination is immense at present.

Moreover the ruling party led by UNP leader Ranil Wickremasinghe is making every effort to divide the SJB by motivating some of its front liners to cross over to their grand old party with more prospects .

With a special notification by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, over Rs 320 million has been allocated to six members of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) for development projects through decentralised proposals.

An amount of Rs 50.2 million has been released to implement 85 project proposals of Dr. Harsha de Silva. For 89 project proposals presented by MP A.H.M. Fowzie, Rs 81.68 million has been allocated.

An allocation of Rs 100 million has been made for 708 projects presented by Anuradhapura District SJB MP Ishak Rahuman. Similarly, Rs 49.99 million has been allocated for 85 projects of Gampaha District MP Ajith Mannapperuma.

Also, an amount of Rs 69 million has been earmarked for 34 projects of Gampaha District MP Kavinda Heshan Jayawardhana. Rs 51 million has been allocated for 25 projects of Galle District MP Gayantha Karunatilleka.

It has also been informed that the expenditure incurred under these provisions should be accounted for before 31 July 2024.This will be bait for the SJP MPs to join the UNP to strengthen the President’s hands in the coming Presidential elections. .

Nevertheless, there is no certainty that Anura Kumara Dissanayake as President or the NPP as a parliamentary majority would win at the next elections, whichever is held first.

Following the New Year festivities, the country’s political parties have resumed their activities focused on May Day parades.

The Municipal Council proposed Gunasinghapura Mawatha for SJB and Maitland Crescent for JVP to mitigate inconvenience on May 1st.

However, objections from concerned parties led to the consideration of Wijayawardena Mawatha for SJB and Lipton Roundabout for JVP. This decision raised concerns for SJB due to the potential traffic disruption caused by the large gathering at Lipton Roundabout.

In response, SJB has threatened legal action against the municipal commissioner for what they perceived as unfair allocation of rally locations. They speculated that higher authorities might be influencing these decisions to disrupt their anticipated large-scale rally in Colombo